摘要:风险社会逐渐成为全球面对的重要社会形态,其中技术风险是主要风险。为防止技术风险产生的"有组织的不负责任",需要通过"有组织的技术预见"来联合社会各界系统性预测技术发展态势和风险,凝聚社会各界共识,通过支撑政策制定来加强规划引导和前瞻治理。风险社会情境下,技术预见需要在技术评估的最大效益、技术决策的最大共识、技术实现的最优路径的基础上,预测技术研发和创新等各个阶段引发的潜在风险和前瞻评估风险治理体系,发挥支撑新兴和潜在风险技术的决策咨询、规训产业技术创新路径、提高公众风险意识和参与技术决策能力等功能,需要跨部门领导小组、面向公众的预见方法和多元化群体的参与。展望未来,需要加强公众参与技术预见的有效方法和组织流程研究、社会预见以及国际性技术预见的理论和方法研究。 

关键词：技术预见;风险社会;技术风险;技术决策;共识

Abstract: The risk society has gradually become an important social form now and Technical Risk is the main risk, and show the characteristics of "organized irresponsibility". Through "Organized Technology Foresight", it can consolidate the consensus of all sectors of society widely based on the opinions of scientific and technological experts, and develop the positive externalities of technology through foresight and forward-looking governance, and then promote the comprehensive and harmonious development of the economy and society. Through the analysis of the concept of technology risk and the practice of technology foresight in various countries, the technology foresight under the risk society scenario should be based on the maximum benefit of technology evaluation, the maximum consensus of technology decision-making, and the optimal path of technology realization, and the analysis is carried out from three aspects: the technology supply side, the social demand side and the basic capability side. To predict the potential risks caused by the various stages of technology development and prospectively evaluate the deficiencies of the risk management system. In order to support the decision-making consultation about the risk of emerging and potential technology, discipline the path of industrial technology innovation, improve public risk awareness and participate in technological decision-making capabilities. According to the above analysis framework, in the practice of technology foresight, firstly, cross-government departments or third-party agencies need to take the lead, break the function limitations of departments, and fully coordinate the participation of experts from multiple disciplines, fields and departments; secondly, it must be based on the Delphi method and then introduce effective scenario analysis, consensus meetings or social surveys to promote the understanding of technical risks and participation in technical decision-making by all sectors of society; thirdly, on the basis of participation of scientific and technological experts, fully investigate scientific and technical community, regional organizations, science fiction writers, and the public and other diverse subjects opinions form the biggest consensus on technical decision-making. Looking forward to the future, in order to give full play to the effectiveness and role of technology foresight to cope with the global risks. Firstly, it is necessary to explore effective methods and procedures for organizing public participation in technology foresight, especially how to improve the breadth and representation of the public when there are differences in the scientific quality of the public, this will affect the key part of the consensus. Secondly, we must explore international technology foresight, promote cross-regional and cross-border government departments, and experts from all walks of life exchanges and dialogues on future technology and social vision, and lay the foundation for promoting international technology governance policy formulation. The third is that with the close integration of technology and society, technology has become an important force in promoting social development and shaping social patterns. It is necessary to promote the transformation of technology foresight to social foresight, and conduct research on theories and methods of social foresight to support future-oriented the study. 

Keyword：technology foresight; risk society; technology risk; technology decision; consensus