摘要:如何从多领域技术交叉融合过程中发现技术机会,预测具有创新性的技术组合关系,对企业进行新产品和服务的研发具有重要价值。针对现有研究仅从本领域识别技术机会以及传统外推方法预测结果局限性、数据时滞导致的结果失准等问题,提出以功能需求为导向,在广泛获取多领域技术解决方案的基础上,实现面向未来的技术融合机会研究,并建立了系统的知识基因视角下的技术融合机会研究框架,提高了技术机会发现的科学性和准确性。首先,采用结构主题模型（structural topic model, STM）方法从在线评论中提取产品功能需求,作为技术基因表达的性状特征;其次,将主—谓—宾（subject-action-object, SAO）短语与技术—关系—技术（technology-relationship-technology, TRT）短语语义分析方法相结合,从专利中提取多领域技术基因,获取技术基因特征要素并完成基因库构建;最后,采用STM方法识别专利中具有融合倾向的技术类别,将其与基因库中的技术要素进行比对,结合专家知识从基因库中筛选具有融合倾向且具有表达为产品性状特征潜力的目的基因,作为潜在技术融合机会,并将目的基因与产品原有技术方案融合,验证技术融合机会。以老年智能可穿戴式跌倒报警产品为研究对象挖掘出85个具有融合前景的目的基因,即85个技术融合机会,结果表明,知识基因的引入提高了技术融合创新过程的可行性和有效性,预测结果更精准。
Abstract: How to discover technological opportunities from the process of cross-integration of technologies in multiple fields and predict innovative technology portfolio relationships is of great value to the R&D of new products and services for enterprises. In view of the existing research only identifying technological opportunities from a single technological field, as well as the limitations of traditional extrapolation methods, and the inaccuracy of results caused by data time lag, this research proposes to be oriented on functional requirements, realize future-oriented technology convergence opportunities research based on extensive acquisition of multi-domain technological solutions, and establish a systematic research framework for technological convergence opportunities from the perspective of knowledge genes. This framework regards technology as a knowledge gene, called "technological gene", takes user functional requirements as traits of technology gene expression, and uses the idea of screening target genes in genetic engineering to predict technological fusion opportunities from multiple fields and potential technological relationships, which improves the scientificity and accuracy of technological opportunity discovery. By constructing a technology gene bank and drawing a knowledge gene map to grasp the law of technology fusion, the uncertainty of the technology combination relationship in the process of technology fusion is overcome. The specific process is as follows: Firstly, the STM(Structural Topic Model) method is used to extract product functional requirements from online reviews as the traits of technical gene expression; Secondly, SAO(Subject-Action-Object) and TRT(Technology-Relationship-Technology) semantic analysis methods are integrated to extract the multi-domain technical genes from patents, obtain technical gene characteristic elements and complete the construction of gene bank. Drawing a technical gene map according to the emergence time of technology genes, exploring whether the evolution process of technology genes conform to the basic characteristics of knowledge genes, and verifying the scientificity and rationality of technology fusion from the perspective of knowledge genes; Finally, the STM method is used to identify the technology categories with fusion tendency in patents. Compare them with the technical gene characteristic elements in the gene bank, screen the target genes according to the screening principle. The screening principle is to select technologies that have not yet appeared in this technical field, but have the possibility of meeting product functional requirements or producing higher-quality fusion solutions, and have a tendency to convergence. The target gene here is a potential technological fusion opportunity. Integrate the target gene with the original technical solution of the product,develop a new fusion technical solution, combine expert knowledge to identify the feasibility of the fusion technical solution, and verify the technological fusion opportunity. Using elderly smart wearable fall alarm products as the research object, 85 target genes with prospects for fusion have been discovered, that is, 85 technological convergence opportunities. The results show that the introduction of knowledge genes improves the feasibility and effectiveness of the technological convergence innovation process. The prediction results are more accurate and practical; Obtaining future-oriented technology convergence opportunities from multiple fields can effectively solve practical problems and provide a systematic and reliable technology convergence innovation management theory and method for enterprises to conduct research and development of new products or services.
Keyword：technology convergence; technology opportunity; knowledge genes; elderly smart wear
文章作者：王艳 苗红 李欣 黄鲁成 吴菲菲