【论文速递】机器人技术发展对就业的影响——职业替代的视角

摘要：机器人技术在中国发展极为迅速，关于机器人对中国就业市场的影响研究显得尤为重要。本文从职业层面出发，运用LASSO回归和随机森林的方法测算出了ONET上435个职业(对应中国职业分类大典中千余个细分职业)的被替代可能性。分析结果表明，我国有大约33%的劳动力处于高风险等级，性别、年龄、受教育水平和工资都与被替代可能性有显著的相关关系。最后，本文探究了机器人对未来中国就业的影响。在产业结构调整顺利进行的背景下，若中国未来30年GDP平均增长率达到5.5%左右，机器人对劳动力的替代效应并不会对总体就业水平产生很大的冲击。在产业结构调整不到位的情况下，机器人对劳动力的替代效应将给中国就业带来严峻挑战。

关键词：人工智能;机器人;职业替代;中国就业

Abstract：With the rapid development of robotics technology in China, it is particularly important to study the impact of robots on China's job market. We use LASSO regression and random forest to calculate the probabilities of 435 occupations being replaced by robots on ONET(corresponding to more than a thousand sub-occupations in China's occupational classification code). The results show that about 33% of China's labor force is at high risk of being replaced, and gender, age, education level and salary are all correlated with the probabilities. Finally, this paper explores the impact of robots on future employment in China. If China can maintain the average GDP growth rate to 5.5% in the next 30 years under the background of industrial restructuring, the replacement effect of robots on labor will not have a big impact on China's overall employment situation, but when China's average GDP growth rate cannot be maintained at such a growth rate, or the industrial structure is not fully adjusted, the substitution effect of robots on labor will cause unemployment.*

Keyword：AI; robots; occupation replacement effect; employment in China

文章作者：刘涛雄潘资兴刘骏

作者单位：清华大学社会科学学院经济学研究所

北京外国语大学国际商学院

全文已刊发在《科学学研究》2022年第3期

关键词:

【论文速递】机器人技术发展对就业的影响——职业替代的视角

标签