摘要：中国经济正处在新旧动能切换的断档时期，高科技新创企业作为促进新动能成长的重要主体，其高效的机会塑造是实现企业发展的关键。效果推理理论为研究高不确定性情境下高科技新创企业机会塑造提供新思路。借鉴高阶梯队理论，分析创业者效果推理对高科技新创企业机会塑造的影响机制。以141家中国高科技新创企业为样本，实证研究发现：创业者效果推理正向影响企业关系网络构建和企业机会塑造；企业关系网络构建在创业者效果推理和企业机会塑造之间起部分中介作用；创业激情不仅正向调节创业者效果推理与企业关系网络构建之间的关系，而且还正向调节企业关系网络构建在创业者效果推理与企业机会塑造之间的中介效应。结论表明在高不确定性情境下，充满激情的效果推理型创业者可以通过促进企业关系网络构建更好地进行机会塑造。

本文以高阶理论为研究框架，重点考察创业者效果推理对于高科技新创企业机会塑造的作用机制，根据141份创业者的调查问卷进行实证检验。结果表明：(1)创业者效果推理促进高科技新创企业机会塑造。中国正处在新旧动能转换的关键时期，高科技新创企业需要面对来自市场、制度、客户、要素等带来的高不确定性，效果推理帮助新创企业更有效地利用机会塑造过程中高不确定性。(2)企业关系网络构建在创业者效果推理与新创企业机会塑造间发挥中介作用。机会塑造需要高资源投入，高科技新创企业由于新生劣势难以充分满足机会塑造的资源需求，效果推理促进企业关系网络构建，帮助企业拓宽知识和资源获取渠道，提升资源多样性，进而有助于机会塑造。(3)本研究还证实了创业激情的调节作用。创业激情能够强化创业者效果推理与企业关系网络之间的关系，也能强化创业者效果推理与企业机会塑造之间的关系。即当创业激情高时，创业者效果推理更好地促进企业关系网络构建，理论模型的中介作用也更强。但是，当创业激情低时，创业激情对创业者效果推理与企业关系网络构建间关系的调节作用不显著。这表明，效果推理对具有高创业激情的创业者影响更大。一个合理的解释是，低激情的企业家通常具有规避风险和安于现状特征，他们不愿意采取冒险的行动，不愿意接受挑战，所以他们可能会选择因果推理而不是效果推理来应对外部变化。相比之下，具有高创业激情的创业者被认为具有高模糊性容忍度和强烈的成就需求特征，他们更倾向于在效果推理指导下采用冒险的行动应对变化。所以，高创业激情能使效果推理的作用得到更好发挥，进而促进企业关系网络构建和机会塑造提升。

本文理论启示有以下几点。第一，拓展了企业机会塑造的影响因素研究。机会塑造是决定高科技新创企业成败的重要因素，但是我们对高不确定性情境下高科技新创企业如何进行动态的机会塑造了解甚少。本研究从创业者角度丰富了创业机会塑造的影响因素研究。第二，拓展了企业关系网络构建的研究。创业者效果推理被证明与企业关系网络构建正相关，拓展了创业者认知因素对企业网络关系构建的影响研究。此外，企业关系网络构建被认为是一个关键的传感器，部分中介创业者效果推理与企业机会塑造之间的关系，丰富了企业关系网络构建的前因和后果研究，也对效果推理影响新创企业机会塑造的内部机制做了有益的补充。第三，拓展了创业领域认知和情感的交互作用研究。本文探讨创业激情与效果推理交互对企业关系网络构建及企业机会塑造的作用机制，回应了以往学者们的号召，即探讨更多不同变量对创业者特征与组织产出关系的调节作用。

本研究也为高科技新创企业实践提供启示。第一，为高科技新创企业创业者提供指导。在高度不确定性环境中创业者应使用效果推理促进企业机会塑造。尤其是新兴经济体中的创业者更应重视自身效果推理和创业激情的培养，例如制定针对性的培训计划、主动参加效果推理相关的培训课程等。创业者也可以加强自己的创业努力，投入更多的时间和精力从事创业活动，提升自身角色认同，进而提升自身创业激情。第二，为政策制定者提供建议。政府可以在创业孵化器内针对创业者设立相关课程或培训项目帮助他们培育效果推理与创业激情。同时政府可以积极为创业者举办更多的活动，提供更多机会帮助他们构建关系网络。第三，为投资者等其他利益主体提供决策指导，例如可以将创业者创业激情或者效果推理作为评估高科技新创企业发展潜力的指标，为投资决策提供参考。  

本研究也存在局限性。第一，本文采用截面数据分析各变量之间的静态关系，对变量之间的纵向关系考察不足。因此，未来需要采取纵向案例研究的方法来捕捉各变量之间的动态关系。第二，本研究仅从创业者特征角度考虑了创业激情在效果推理与企业关系网络构建关系间的调节效应，未来研究可以考察其他情境因素（如外部环境中的文化、经济因素等）的影响，不断丰富企业关系网络构建和机会塑造的边界研究。第三，对效果推理的测量还有待完善。未来研究可以通过案例访谈等方法增加测量题项，不断提炼和完善效果推理量表，提高测量准确性。

关键词:效果推理,关系网络构建,机会塑造,创业激情,高科技新创企业

Abstract: High-tech startups are the most active part in promoting the growth of new drivers. The survival and growth process of high-tech startups is the process of opportunity shaping, which is characterized by high innovation and high complexity. In the contexts of China emerging economies, which are characterized by high uncertainty, the uncertainty of opportunity shaping by high-tech startups with limited resources and management capacity is further increased, and the traditional forecation-oriented decision-making logic is difficult to play an effective role. In recent years, a large number of entrepreneurship research have proved that in highly uncertain contexts, entrepreneurs follow the effectuation to make decision. The effectuation theory is action-oriented. It describes how to think, make decisions and practice under uncertainty, including a series of principles such as flexibility, affordable loss, previous commitment and experiment. At present，the effectuation theory has attracted the attention of scholars in the field of entrepreneurship. However, the researchers have not explained and answered the effect of entrepreneurs′ effectuation on the opportunity shaping of high-tech startups, as well as the internal mechanism. Therefore, based on the upper echelons theory, this study discussed the influence of entrepreneurs′ effectuation on organizational opportunity shaping from the perspective of entrepreneurs, as well as the mediating effect of organizational network construction and the regulating effect of entrepreneurs′ entrepreneurial passion.

On the basis of summarizing the existing research, research models are constructed and research hypotheses are proposed. This study collected data from Shanghai and Jilin in the form of questionnaires. According to the calculation of the China Entrepreneurship Activity Index (CPEA) in the Global Entrepreneurship Observation Report, Shanghai is one of the cities with the highest degree of entrepreneurial activity, while entrepreneurial activities in Jilin are not active. This shows that there is a big difference in the degree of entrepreneurial activity between the two cities. The questionnaire requires entrepreneurs or middle-level and senior managers who have a comprehensive understanding of the actual situation of the company to fill in. A total of 400 questionnaires were distributed and 141 valid questionnaires were collected.All the items were measured using five-point Likert scales ranging from 1 to 5. 1 represented a strong disagreement， and the 5 represented a complete agreement. In this paper, Harmon single factor analysis was adopted, and the common method variation problem can be ignored．

Before data analysis, the reliability of the variables was tested using cronbach′s coefficient, and confirmatory factor analysis in the structural equation model was used to test the scale′s structural validity. The test results show that the scale of all the variables have good reliability and discriminative validity. Correlation analysis also shows that there is a strong correlation among the variables in this study. Then SPSS was used to test the research hypothesis, and the conclusions showed that: (1) entrepreneurs′ effectuation has a positive impact on organizational network construction and organizational opportunity shaping. (2) Organizational network construction plays an mediating role in the relationship between entrepreneurs′ effectuation and organizational opportunity shaping. (3) The higher the entrepreneurs′ entrepreneurial passion, the stronger the relationship between entrepreneurs′ effectuation and organizational network construction; the stronger the relationship between entrepreneurs′ effectuation and organizational opportunity shaping.

The theoretical enlightenment of this article is as follows. First, it expands the research on the influencing factors of organizational opportunity shaping. Second, it expands the research on organizational network construction，and enriches the research on the effect of entrepreneurs′ cognitive factors on organizational network construction. In addition, it has enriches the research on the causes and consequences of organizational network construction, and has also made a useful supplement to the internal mechanism of entrpreneurs′ effectuation and organizational opportunity shaping. Third, it expands the research on the interaction between cognition and emotion in the entrepreneurial field, responding to the call of previous scholars to explore the moderating effects of more different variables on the relationship between entrepreneurial characteristics and organizational outputs.

This research provides some inspiration for the practice of high-tech startups. First, the conclusions provide guidances for entrepreneurs. In highly uncertain environments, entrepreneurs should use effectuation to promote opportunities shaping. Second, the conclusions provide advice to policy makers. The government can set up relevant courses or training programs for entrepreneurs in entrepreneurial incubators to help them improve the effectuation and entrepreneurial passion. At the same time, the government can actively organize more activities for entrepreneurs, so as to provide more opportunities to help them construct network. Third, the conclusions provide decision-making guidance for investors. Entrepreneurial passion or effectuation can be used as an indicator to evaluate the development potential of high-tech startups and provide a reference for investment decisions.

This study also has some limitations. First, this study uses cross-sectional data to analyze the static relationship among the variables, and insufficiently examines the longitudinal relationship among the variables. Therefore, a longitudinal case study method is needed to capture the dynamic relationship among various variables in the future. Second, this study only considers the moderating effect of entrepreneurial passion in the relationship between entrepreneurs′ effectuation and organizational network construction from the perspective of entrepreneurs′ characteristics. Future research can investigate the influence of other contextual factors to continuously enrich the research related to boundaries of organizational network construction and opportunity shaping. Third, the measurement of effectuation needs to be improved. Future research can add measurement items through case interviews and other methods, continuously refine and improve the effectuation scale, and improve measurement accuracy.

Key words: effectuation, network construction, opportunity shaping, entrepreneurs′ passion, high-tech startups

文章作者：夏李慧,罗彪

作者单位：中国科学技术大学管理学院

合肥工业大学管理学院

全文已刊发在《科研管理》2021年第1期