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【论文速递】Kuniko ：日本第11次预见调查概述
日本第11次预见调查概述
An Overview of the 11th Foresight Survey in Japan
Kuniko Urashima
Science and Technology Foresight Center, National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Tokyo 100-0013, Japan
Abstract
The purpose of the 11th Foresight survey in Japan is to provide basic information that contributes to the consideration in Science and Technology (S&T) innovation policy and strategy formation, including the 6th S&T Basic Plan in 2021–2025. The prospective period is about 30 years until 2050, and the target year is 2040. This survey consists of 4 parts: horizon scanning as part 1, visioning as part 2, Delphi survey as part 3 and scenario planning as part 4. For the vision, many opinions were given at the workshop, but as a characteristic tendency, the importance of recognizing humanity due to the spread of science and technology and the importance of connection with people were required. For the image of society in 2040, a society was proposed in which there is no difference between reality and imagination, and there is no feeling of loneliness. In addition, a wide range of hobbies has been proposed as a result from the spread of virtual space technology that can be enjoyed by anyone of any age; and a safe society proposed where dementia can be understood in advance. In this way, a society image was proposed in which the issues that are already prominent at present are overcome. For Delphi survey, it was conducted to reveal the importance, international competitiveness, and prospects for implementation of the topics. There were 5,352 respondents from the industry, academia, and government. The priority was placed on support for problems such as the reduction in population and the ultra-aging society, as well as the recent and frequent climate-related disasters, preventive medicine use, weather disaster support, and lifestyle or work support robots. With regard to the prospect of realizing this, it was shown that 90% of S&T topics can be realized by 2035. In addition, the feature of this survey is that the vision and the results of the Delphi survey were linked, and the priorities for realization were examined in the workshop specifically by the forecast and the backcast. This work was more popular and effective than the participants imagined.
IDP期刊介绍：Innovation and Development Policy（简称：IDP；中文名：创新与发展政策）是在“中国科技期刊国际影响力提升计划”资助下创办，国内外发行（ISSN: 2096-5141，CN: 10-1513/D）的英文国际期刊。由中国科学院主管，中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院和中国科学学与科技政策研究会主办。
期刊网址：http://idp-journal.casisd.cn/
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