Abstract: Digital-based emergency technology has the characteristics of platformization, inclusiveness and universality, which can play an effective supporting role in the prevention and control of major public health emergencies. China should strengthen the judgment of the future development direction of public health field and the selection of key technologies, promote the digital transformation of public health field, and improve the ability of prevention and control of major public health emergencies. In this study, Delphi survey method was used as the core method of technology selection, and the key technology selection was carried out towards 2035. The process includes:(1) preliminary preparation and research;(2) a domain expert group of domestic well-known experts in related fields was established;(3) 12 technology fields including chronic non-communicable diseases, infectious diseases, health emergency, biosafety, etc. and a list of 158 technology topics had been determined after expert consultation;(4) the Delphi questionnaire was developed;(5) the first round of Delphi survey was launched, 1219 questionnaires were distributed and 486 valid questionnaires were recovered;(6) the results of the first round of Delphi survey were fed back to the expert group for discussion. 3 technical topics were added, 1 technical topic was decomposed, and some topics were revised, finally, formed a list of 162 candidate technical topics for the second round of Delphi survey;(7) the second round of Delphi questionnaire was launched, 1206 questionnaires were distributed and 492 questionnaires were recovered;(8) the results of the second round of survey were fed back, and eight digital technologies that should be developed in the field of public health in China towards 2035 were summarized by analyzing the technology topics list and research results proposed by experts in the fields of infectious diseases and health emergency. Towards 2035, the eight key technologies in the field of public health in China are:(1) the health emergency management decision-making system based on artificial intelligence and multi network integration technology;(2) the health emergency risk monitoring and early warning technology based on big data;(3) the artificial intelligence monitoring and early warning technology of infectious diseases with the core of pathogen group big data;(4) integrated equipment and reagents for rapid detection and identification of emerging infectious diseases;(5) scene construction technology of major public health emergencies(6) mobile integration technology of health emergency information has been applied in on-site disposal;(7) unmanned and intelligent technology for on-site disposal of health emergency;(8) mathematical model technology has been applied in the spread and response decision-making of sudden acute infectious diseases. Based on the results of the Delphi survey, R&D investment, human resources, and infrastructure are the top three constraints. It is suggested to increase R&D investment in priority technology fields, strengthen human resources construction in related fields, strengthen infrastructure construction in public health field and carry out precise international scientific and technological exchanges and cooperation to further enhance the national public health emergency response capabilities. The Delphi survey was conducted for the whole field of life and health, so the data obtained from the fields of health emergency and infectious diseases were not comprehensive; on the other hand, due to the long foresight time and the mutation of key technologies involved, it was also necessary to regularly evaluate the effect of technology foresight in the future and optimize relevant processes and methods.
Key Words：technology selection; technology layout; technology foresight; public health; digital transformation
文章作者：王婷 池康伟 蔺洁