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【论文速递】面向2035中国公共卫生数字技术选择与布局研究——基于德尔菲调查的技术预见研究


摘要:重大突发公共卫生事件已经成为影响世界各国经济社会平稳运行的重要问题,数字技术能够在重大突发公共卫生事件防控中起到有效的支撑作用。因此,面向未来应积极加强公共卫生领域数字技术的布局,促进公共卫生领域的数字化转型。基于2轮德尔菲调查的技术预见研究结果,提出面向2035年中国公共卫生数字技术选择与布局的相关建议,为新一轮中长期发展规划的制定提供支撑。主要观点:应优先发展8项聚焦公共卫生领域的数字技术,分别是基于人工智能和多网整合技术的卫生应急管理决策体系,基于大数据的卫生应急风险监测与预警技术,病原组大数据为核心的传染病人工智能监测预警技术,新发传染病快速监测鉴定一体化设备与试剂,重大突发公共卫生事件情景构建技术,卫生应急信息移动整合技术,面向卫生应急现场处置的无人化、智能化技术,数学模型技术在突变急性传染病疫情传播及应对决策中的应用。德尔菲调查结果显示,研发投入、人力资源和基础设施分别是排在前三的制约因素,因此建议持续加大公共卫生数字技术研发的财政投入、加强相关领域人力资源建设、加强公共卫生领域基础设施建设和开展精准对接的国际科技交流与合作,进一步提升国家公共卫生应急能力。

 

关键词: 技术选择;技术布局;技术预见;公共卫生;数字转型

 

Abstract: Digital-based emergency technology has the characteristics of platformization, inclusiveness and universality, which can play an effective supporting role in the prevention and control of major public health emergencies. China should strengthen the judgment of the future development direction of public health field and the selection of key technologies, promote the digital transformation of public health field, and improve the ability of prevention and control of major public health emergencies. In this study, Delphi survey method was used as the core method of technology selection, and the key technology selection was carried out towards 2035. The process includes:(1) preliminary preparation and research;(2) a domain expert group of domestic well-known experts in related fields was established;(3) 12 technology fields including chronic non-communicable diseases, infectious diseases, health emergency, biosafety, etc. and a list of 158 technology topics had been determined after expert consultation;(4) the Delphi questionnaire was developed;(5) the first round of Delphi survey was launched, 1219 questionnaires were distributed and 486 valid questionnaires were recovered;(6) the results of the first round of Delphi survey were fed back to the expert group for discussion. 3 technical topics were added, 1 technical topic was decomposed, and some topics were revised, finally, formed a list of 162 candidate technical topics for the second round of Delphi survey;(7) the second round of Delphi questionnaire was launched, 1206 questionnaires were distributed and 492 questionnaires were recovered;(8) the results of the second round of survey were fed back, and eight digital technologies that should be developed in the field of public health in China towards 2035 were summarized by analyzing the technology topics list and research results proposed by experts in the fields of infectious diseases and health emergency. Towards 2035, the eight key technologies in the field of public health in China are:(1) the health emergency management decision-making system based on artificial intelligence and multi network integration technology;(2) the health emergency risk monitoring and early warning technology based on big data;(3) the artificial intelligence monitoring and early warning technology of infectious diseases with the core of pathogen group big data;(4) integrated equipment and reagents for rapid detection and identification of emerging infectious diseases;(5) scene construction technology of major public health emergencies(6) mobile integration technology of health emergency information has been applied in on-site disposal;(7) unmanned and intelligent technology for on-site disposal of health emergency;(8) mathematical model technology has been applied in the spread and response decision-making of sudden acute infectious diseases. Based on the results of the Delphi survey, R&D investment, human resources, and infrastructure are the top three constraints. It is suggested to increase R&D investment in priority technology fields, strengthen human resources construction in related fields, strengthen infrastructure construction in public health field and carry out precise international scientific and technological exchanges and cooperation to further enhance the national public health emergency response capabilities. The Delphi survey was conducted for the whole field of life and health, so the data obtained from the fields of health emergency and infectious diseases were not comprehensive; on the other hand, due to the long foresight time and the mutation of key technologies involved, it was also necessary to regularly evaluate the effect of technology foresight in the future and optimize relevant processes and methods.

 

Key Words:technology selection; technology layout; technology foresight; public health; digital transformation

 

文章作者:王婷 池康伟 蔺洁

作者单位:中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院

全文已刊发在《科学学与科学技术管理》2021年第3期

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