摘要：第四次工业革命的到来,催生了新兴技术的快速发展。社会公众在享受新科技带来的便利同时,会对新兴技术所引发的未知风险产生一定的恐慌与抗拒心理,并经由特定的渠道进行扩散,产生风险感知的耦合效应。因此,掌握社会系统中新兴技术风险感知的扩散规律,对于新兴技术风险的治理具有重要的理论与实践意义。本文界定了风险感知扩散的耦合概念,分析了新兴技术风险感知在社会系统中的"耦合—演化"扩散机理,构建了风险感知的社会扩散量化模型,并通过数值仿真,探讨了内、外部不同要素对新兴技术风险感知扩散的耦合影响及风险感知社会扩散效率。研究结果表明,随着个体对新兴技术风险的心理距离与公众参与新兴技术风险治理程度的增加,风险感知在社会系统中扩散的叠加效应逐渐减弱,独立效应逐渐增强,风险感知的扩散效率逐渐降低;而随着个体对传播者信任程度的提高,风险感知在社会系统中扩散的吸引效应作用逐渐凸显。

关键词：新兴技术; 风险感知; 社会传播; 耦合过程; 系统演化

Abstract：The advent of the fourth industrial revolution has spurred the rapid development of new technologies. While enjoying the convenience brought by the new technology, the public will have certain panic and resistance to the unknown risks caused by the emerging technology, which will be diffused through specific channels and generate the coupling effect of risk perception. Therefore, grasping the social contagion rule of emerging technology risk perception has great theoretical and practical significance for the governance of emerging technology risk. The concept of risk perception contagion coupling is defined, and the contagion mechanism of emerging technology risk perception in the social system is also analyzed based on the "coupling-evolution " process in this paper. Meanwhile, the social contagion quantitative model of risk perception is built. By using numerical simulation, the different impact of internal and external factors on the coupled effect and efficiency of emerging technology risk perception social contagion. The results show that with the increase and deepening of individual psychological distance to emerging technology risks and the degree of public participation in emerging technology risk governance, the superposition effect of risk perception contagion in the social system gradually weakens, the independent effect gradually increases, and the social contagion efficiency of risk perception gradually decreases. With the improvement of individuals' trust in information sources, the attraction effect of social contagion of risk perception becomes increasingly prominent.

Key words：emerging technology; risk perception; social contagion; coupling process; system evolution

文章作者：孙典，薛澜，张路蓬

作者单位：清华大学公共管理学院应急管理研究基地

北京航空航天大学公共管理学院

全文已刊发在《科学学研究》2021年第1期