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2022

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06

【论文速递】技术预见国际经验、趋势与启示研究


摘要:技术预见对于把握科技发展趋势,识别科技革命与产业变革发展机遇,提升国家竞争力具有重要作用。与技术预见主要国家相比,中国在技术预见导向、技术预见领域划分、技术预见信息技术应用、技术预见参与群体和创新政策研究等方面均表现出一定的差距。通过梳理技术预见的起源与演进,分析全球技术预见实践的历程,揭示了技术预见成为世界潮流的演变过程及其背后逻辑。结合技术预见的方法组合、指导思想、组织与操作和成果应用等分析了日本、韩国、英国、德国和俄罗斯近年来的典型实践案例,总结并提出了国外技术预见发展趋势。未来一段时间内,技术预见将围绕提高技术预见质量,提高技术预见效率,构建社会愿景和系统性预见4个方向发展。最后,结合中国技术预见现状,提出中国技术预见能力建设的系列建议。
 
关键词:技术预见;国际经验;国际趋势;演化与启示
 
Abstract: Technology foresight has become a major social science and technology activity in the world to predict technology trends, choose key technology development directions and take optimization actions for the countries or regions. At present, the capability of the China's scientific and technological innovation continues to strengthen, and the number of the leading technology in the world continues to increase. In addition, China's economic development has entered a new normal phase that a moderate slowdown in economic growth. Under the background, it is important on the current technological innovation and technology development to foster new drivers of economic growth and to achieve high economic quality and efficiency upgrading. Thus, an urgent demand to identify the direction of future technology development was required. Technology foresight research has important practical significance for continuously promoting the development of scientific and technological innovation in our country.Compared with the major countries of technology foresight in the world, China's technology foresight research presents the following shortcomings:(1) Technology foresight research on social vision and future needs is simple and shallow;(2) Technology foresight result is weak to use for the domain division as a guideline to develop the technology;(3) The application of the information technology to support the technology foresight practice is uncommon;(4)Delphi survey experts in the Technology foresight are relatively single;(5) Technology foresight result to support the innovation development policy formulation is insufficient;(6) Technology foresight organizations are relatively scattered and the technology foresight practice lacks periodicity.This study on foreign practical experience research of technology foresight revels the practical details on the foreign technology foresight by the cases study, and analyzes the effect of technology foresight on the social experiment implementation. This research can not only enrich methods and theories on China's technology foresight, but also improve China's technology foresight operation level. This study is also used to grasp the development trend of technology foresight for China. This is of great practical significance for enhancing China's technology foresight and practice ability, improving the level of national science and technology planning, and strengthening the ability of science and technology to respond to social challenges.This article also reveals the origin and development of the concept of "technology foresight" by sorting out the origin and evolution of technology foresight, and portrays the five development stages of global technology foresight. The results show technology foresight began in the United States; and then Japan improved the Delphi survey and carried out large-scale investigations. Next, the Europe followed up and many countries began to carry out the technology foresight.After that, the technology foresight has become the world tide. In the 21 century, major countries(such as Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany and Russia) continued to carry out with a periodicity. In addition, this article analyzes the typical cases of technology foresight in Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany and Russia in recent years from four aspects: technology foresight methods, technology foresight orientation, technology foresight organization operations, and application of technology foresight results. Combined with the characteristics of the fourth industrial revolution and the practice cases of the world's major technology foresight countries, the development trend of technology foresight is discussed comprehensively. It is believed that in the future, technology foresight will develop in four directions:improving the quality of technology foresight, improving the efficiency of technology foresight, constructing social vision and systematic foresight. Finally, combined with the current situation of China's technology foresight, a series of suggestion to enhance the China's technology foresight ability are put forward.(1) Qian Xuesen's "Comprehensive and Integrated Seminar Hall" thought should be used to guide the selection of technology foresight methods and improve the accuracy of technology foresight.(2) The advanced information technology should be employed to carry out technology foresight and improve the efficiency of technology foresight.(3) The technology foresight methodology of facing to social vision and challenges should be focus and the corresponding technology foresight practice should be carried out.(4) China should strengthen the application of technology foresight and promote the innovation subjects to jointly respond to a series of problems of social development refers to technology foresight results.
 
Key words: technology foresight; international experience; international trends; evolution and enlightenment
 

文章作者:杨捷,陈凯华

作者单位:中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院

全文已刊发在《科学学与科学技术管理》2021年第3期

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